Source: Rounding The Earth Author: Mathew Crawford

Fifty years ago today, the New York Times began publication of the Pentagon Papers, informing the public about how a government-engineered narrative controlled the public’s perception of the Vietnam War.

When an organism gets invaded by a pathogenic force, its immune system works to restore order. In response to the Pentagon Papers leak, the Nixon administration employed the “White House Plumbers” to investigate, infiltrate, and guide the media in order to restore control over propaganda campaigns. Those efforts eventually led to the Watergate scandal as the Plumbers morphed into a partisan political tool at the hands of the executive branch.


Last night I talked with meteorologist and sports statistician Joe Giannotti on his podcast Joe’s Place. We talked through some of the statistics used in biomedical testing, including the following topics:

Part A:


Part B:


Note: I made the mistake of analyzing the results of the SOLIDARITY trial calling those the results of the RECOVERY trial. The results of the two trials were highly similar, but the sizes of the arms were different.

Here’s the biggest punchline from that interview: The SOLIDARITY trial (and the nearly identical RECOVERY trial, which makes no sense given that neither was similar to common treatment protocols as most all doctors describe their use of HCQ) aggregated patients from hundreds of hospitals in dozens of nations. When correcting for the time-basis of the protocol dimensions, a true effect size of 86.5% is at least consistent with the data according to an aggregation of three distinct protocols (which match the fact that 60% of the RECOVERY trial patients were already on oxygen at the time treatment began).


(To best understand this analysis, read my previous articles describing the Simpson’s paradox/effects here and here.)

To a quality statistician [whose livelihood does not depend on their stated answer], this chart is a smoking gun: The WHO trials absolutely did not demonstrate that HCQ is not an effective medication for COVID-19. In fact, a re-analysis at the protocol level of the raw data likely shows that it certainly does—even for late stage (moderate or severe) COVID-19 patients. We just need to know the precise disease progression curve (the percentages I used to the right of the patient numbers) in order to properly sort the patients into three protocol groups. Though the best evidence that HCQ works is still the early treatment data as per the Primary HCQ Hypothesis.

Now, I cannot say for sure that the WHO rigged their trials to suggest that HCQ failed to help patients, though I think there are a lot of reasons to believe those involved are disingenuous liars.

  • The trials tested an antiviral on late stage patients (median 9 days after symptom onset, which is already a median of 11.5 days after infection) when the SARS-CoV-2 virus has stopped replicating in most parts of the body and the disease state no longer depends much on viral replication (image thanks to Ben Althouse, PhD).
  • The trial designers ignored outside expert advice  as to the absurdity of their protocols.
  • The trial designers discussed a 4.4g total dose of HCQ discussed as “undoubtedly high” after consulting pharmacokinetic reports (herehere, and herethat were then scrubbed from the WHO trial website before a 9.6g dose was used. That final dosage was not even made public, and the only way to find it was to look up documents on the trial made public by a few of the nations running the trial.

In my interview with Joe, I said that I wasn’t sure if the high dosage made a big difference in the mortality results of the trial. I was speaking too quickly. The 2.4g loading dose used (first 24 hours total) has a toxicity similar to the point at which the WHO previously said in 1979 is “potentially fatal” and very well could have brought the sickest and most frail patients to a blood serum level similar to that of the bizarre trial in Brazil in which patients given high levels of chloroquine died at high rates. It may very well be that the dosage level is responsible for some number of the deaths. But my larger point was that the organization of the data at the protocol level makes a far larger difference when examining the potentially huge difference between the reported odds ratio and the true odds ratio.

Frankly, the trial looks more like something somebody might design, while sacrificing human subjects, in order to create data to be privately understood while creating a smokescreen for the larger public.

The Chloroquine Wars Part XV – How to Rig Research: Surgisphere Part II

The Chloroquine Wars Part XIX – Historical Failures of Public Health Authorities

The Chloroquine Wars Part XX – Why The Early Treatment Data is Better Than Anyone Imagines

The Chloroquine Wars Part XXI

Dr. Peter McCullough’s Common Sense Breakdown of the Pandemic – The Chloroquine Wars Part XXIII

Doctor Didier Raoult Part I: Where We Are Now -The Chloroquine Wars Part XXV

Everything Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, and Pierre Kory Missed About “The Crime of the Century” The Chloroquine Wars Part XXVI

Journal Editors Resign Over Suppression of Ivermectin Research Paper – The Chloroquine Wars Part XXVII

What if the SARS-CoV-2 Virus is Weaker Than Most Everyone Thinks? – The Chloroquine Wars Part XXVIII

Institutional Funding of Propaganda Against Early Treatment of COVID-19 – The Chloroquine Wars Part XXX

India Treats Medical Staff Prophylactically and Early, and It Makes a Difference – The Chloroquine Wars Part XXXI

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